Trump's 100 days: Building resilience in post-retirement / investment portfolios
The first 100 days of President Trump’s second term have reinforced the need for retirees to engage with expert advisors and take a long-term view on their investment performance. Photo: iStock
When looking at present market volatility, people should maintain a proactive investment approach — particularly through strategic allocations, advises of Insight Private Clients
Retirement should be a time of financial security, not market anxiety.
Yet, with heightened volatility, slowing growth, and escalating trade tensions, many retirees relying on pension funds for income, face uncertainty.
The first 100 days of President Trump’s second term have reinforced what retirees already knew: today’s markets are uniquely volatile. For those relying on pension funds to sustain their golden years, non-engagement with advisors is a luxury few can afford.
In this environment, maintaining a proactive investment approach—particularly through strategic allocations — has never been more critical.
The post-retirement landscape has shifted dramatically in recent years, with three key challenges emerging:
The Euro Stoxx 50 swung wildly in Q1, dropping ~5% before a recovery, with a Year to Date return of 5%+ (as at 29th April ’25). While markets have staged a notable rebound since April 8th, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain amid persistent trade tensions, inflationary pressures, and slowing global growth — caution is warranted before interpreting this as a durable turnaround.
Even "safe" assets like bonds have struggled.
Trump’s aggressive tariffs have disrupted global supply chains, introducing new inflationary pressures just as retirees face rising living costs.
Geopolitical risks (U.S.-China tensions, European energy security) add another layer of unpredictability.
The classic Multi Asset portfolio has underperformed in this cycle, with both equities and bonds suffering declines simultaneously.
Retirees who relied on fixed income for stability now face real (inflation-adjusted) losses.
We encourage investors to take a long-term view and recognise the benefits of portfolio diversification, particularly amid this uncertainty, volatility, and a reassessment of growth prospects.
These investments (like infrastructure and utilities) earn money through long-term contracts, similar to a landlord with reliable tenants. This means they pay consistent dividends and don't swing wildly in value — perfect when markets get shaky. Not immune to volatility they're built to handle turbulence better than most.
Unlike companies that import or export goods, most real assets aren't directly hurt by tariffs. Whether it's a toll road or power company, they keep doing business as usual.
They're reasonably priced compared to other investments.
They historically do well when prices rise (inflation).
Global trends (like the push for cleaner energy) support their growth We understand that the current market volatility is unsettling, particularly when drawing on your pension or investment portfolios for Income. Periods like these test investor confidence, but history reminds us that markets have weathered similar—and often worse — storms, and resilience has consistently proven to be the most effective response.
During the Eurozone crisis (2011-2013), the MSCI Europe Index fell nearly 30% at its low point. Yet, investors who maintained a disciplined approach saw markets recover +72% over the following five years.
MSCI Europe Index 28th April ‘25 More recently, in 2020, European equities dropped -35% in just weeks amid pandemic fears, only to rebound +50% within a year. Volatility is not new, but it has always been temporary.
The barrage of negative news will add to evidence that trade chaos is taking a major toll on companies, forcing many to cut spending or consider moving production, up-ending supply chains and making it tough to plan beyond the immediate term.
Missing just the 10 best days in European markets (2003-2023) would have cut returns by ~40% (Source: Bloomberg). Staying invested matters.
European infrastructure and utilities outperformed equities by +15% during 2022’s volatility (FTSE Europe Core Infrastructure Index). These sectors provided stability through reliable income — proof that strategic allocations can cushion shocks.
Real assets like commodities (+90% in European energy stocks since 2020) have historically hedged inflationary spikes, preserving purchasing power.
It’s understandable that these market swings may feel unsettling — that's completely normal. What matters most isn't predicting every wave, but having a strategy that keeps you sailing steadily toward your goals. Through 40+ years of guiding clients, I've seen that successful investing combines three key elements:
- Knowledge — understanding how markets work.
- Adaptability — adjusting when needed.
- Patience — staying committed to your plan.
The good news? A Balanced portfolio was built with volatility in mind. Again, whilst not immune to volatility, when compared to specific Markets or Assets, declines, whilst unpalatable, should be within acceptable % ranges. Remember:
- (Oct 19) – Global markets crashed, with the Dow dropping -22.6% in one day (FTSE 100: -12.2%).
- (Aug–Feb 1991) – Oil prices spiked +125%, triggering recessions in Europe and the U.S.
- – Lehman Brothers collapsed (Sept 15); Euro Stoxx 50 fell -65% by 2009.
- (June 23) – FTSE 100 dropped -8% in 2 days; GBP hit 31-year lows.
- – Euro Stoxx 50 crashed -40% (Feb–Mar); oil prices briefly turned negative.
- (Feb 24) – European gas prices surged +800%; ECB hiked rates for the first time in 11 years.
- – ECB rates hit 4.5% (2023), crushing property markets; German 10-year yields turned positive after a decade near 0%.
Investors who held steady were rewarded when conditions improved. This time is no different. Whilst the World Order of Things may change how we do business and where we do Business, in the future, by seeking and obtaining informed advice history has rewarded those that make clinical, informed decisions as opposed to emotional responses.
Currently, markets are reflecting support for equities, as the net declines look bearish, and this increases the chance for a bullish reversal. However, fundamental factors remain very weak, as all of them are showing negative signals for equities. Similar to your Doctor stating “Your doctor (the data) says your "vitals" (orders, risks, surprises, profits) are weakening.”
It doesn’t mean a crash is coming, but it’s time to be informed. These unpredictable environments teach us invaluable lessons about resilience, the importance of staying diversified, and the long-term benefits of sticking to a well-structured plan.
